MLB Games Scoreless Through 5 Innings: Totals, Extras and 1-0 Finals
A scoreless game through five innings is rare and often mispriced on instinct. I traced what followed in 61,233 MLB games: final totals, 1-0 finals and extra innings.
If an MLB game is still 0-0 after three to eight innings, how many runs does it finish with, and how often does it end 1-0 or go to extras?
- A4.3%of MLB games are 0-0 after five innings
- B3.98average final total from 0-0 after five
- C36.2%reach extras when 0-0 after seven
- D60.6%end 1-0 when 0-0 after eight
A scoreless game through five innings feels like a pitchers' duel that will never end. Across 61,233 MLB regular-season games from 2000 to 2025, only 4.3% were still 0-0 at that point. That makes the state rare enough that most bettors price it on feel rather than evidence. I wanted to know what actually follows: how many runs, how often a 1-0 final, and how often extras.
The headline answer is that from 0-0 after five, games finished with 3.98 runs on average and 81.9% stayed at 6 runs or fewer. Push the zeroes through eight innings and 60.6% end 1-0, while 56.2% need extras. One point before the charts: once you know a game is 0-0 after five, the pre-game total can no longer be bet. These figures are for the in-play price, not the line you saw before first pitch.
Branch AEach scoreless inning pulls the final total sharply lower
This chart splits final combined runs into four bands for games still 0-0 after each inning. From 0-0 after three (9,105 games) the spread is wide, and 37.9% still reached 7 or more runs. By five innings the picture has tilted. 32.8% ended on 0-2 runs, 30.4% on 3-4, 18.7% on 5-6 and only 18.1% on 7 or more.
I lean on this shape alongside the starting-pitching reads on my baseball best picks page, because it shows how quickly the run environment collapses. By the time a game is 0-0 after seven, 62.9% finish on 0-2 runs.
View the data: final total when it is 0-0 after n innings
| 0-2 runs | 3-4 runs | 5-6 runs | 7+ runs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-0 after 3 (9,105) | 14.6% | 24.7% | 22.8% | 37.9% |
| 0-0 after 4 (4,681) | 22.6% | 28.7% | 22.2% | 26.4% |
| 0-0 after 5 (2,629) | 32.8% | 30.4% | 18.7% | 18.1% |
| 0-0 after 6 (1,344) | 47.0% | 29.2% | 14.0% | 9.7% |
| 0-0 after 7 (704) | 62.9% | 24.3% | 8.5% | 4.3% |
| 0-0 after 8 (406) | 71.4% | 21.4% | 4.9% | 2.2% |
The lesson for me is that an early 0-0 is weak evidence. Three scoreless innings still leave plenty of room for a normal-looking game. Five is where the distribution genuinely changes.
Branch BFair under 6.5 odds climb steeply after five innings
The table turns each state into a base rate and a fair price with no bookmaker margin. From 0-0 after four, games averaged 4.82 runs and stayed under 6.5 in 73.6% of cases, fair odds of −279. After five that becomes 81.9% and −452. After six it is 90.3% and −931, on an average total of 3.11.
The home column moves less than you might expect. Home teams won 53.9% of games scoreless after five and 55.3% of games scoreless after seven. That is a modest edge, not a reason to back the home side blindly.
| 0-0 after | Games | Share of all | Avg total | Under 6.5 | Fair odds | Home win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| After 3 | 9,105 | 14.9% | 5.85 | 62.1% | −164 | 52.6% |
| After 4 | 4,681 | 7.6% | 4.82 | 73.6% | −279 | 52.9% |
| After 5 | 2,629 | 4.3% | 3.98 | 81.9% | −452 | 53.9% |
| After 6 | 1,344 | 2.2% | 3.11 | 90.3% | −931 | 53.1% |
| After 7 | 704 | 1.1% | 2.37 | 95.7% | −2226 | 55.3% |
| After 8 | 406 | 0.7% | 1.95 | 97.8% | −4445 | 55.7% |
The biggest limitation is that these are league-wide rates. They do not account for which starters or parks produced the zeroes, and the later rows rest on far fewer games, so they move more from season to season. An ace-against-ace game in a pitcher's park is not the same 0-0 as two mid-rotation arms getting lucky.
Branch CLate zeroes turn into 1-0 finals and extra innings
Here the three branch lines rise together as the zeroes pile up. A 1-0 final came up in 8.3% of games scoreless after three, 21.7% after five, 33.3% after six and 60.6% after eight. Extras followed in 12.8% of games 0-0 after three and 18.3% after five. That rises to 36.2% after seven and 56.2% after eight, against 8.6% of all games.
One-run finals are the quieter story. They made up 48.0% of games 0-0 after five and 63.5% of games 0-0 after seven. That matters for anyone holding a run line in a scoreless game.
View the data: extras, 1-0 and one-run finals from 0-0
| Goes to extras | Ends 1-0 | One-run final | |
|---|---|---|---|
| After 3 | 12.8% | 8.3% | 37.4% |
| After 4 | 15.5% | 13.8% | 41.7% |
| After 5 | 18.3% | 21.7% | 48.0% |
| After 6 | 24.4% | 33.3% | 55.1% |
| After 7 | 36.2% | 48.9% | 63.5% |
| After 8 | 56.2% | 60.6% | 72.7% |
When I see a late 0-0, I stop thinking about who wins comfortably and start thinking about whether there will be a winner in nine at all.
Branch DExtras from 0-0 rose slightly under the runner rule
This chart compares the two eras either side of the rule that places a runner on second in every extra inning. From 0-0 after five, 17.6% of games reached extras in 2000-19 (2,021 games) against 20.4% in 2020-25 (608 games). After six the rates were 24.1% and 25.6%, and after seven 36.0% and 36.9%.
Extra innings start with a runner on second since 2020.
View the data: extra-innings rate from 0-0, then and now
| 2000-19 | 2020-25 | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 after 4 (3,576 / 1,105 games) | 14.9% | 17.2% |
| 0-0 after 5 (2,021 / 608 games) | 17.6% | 20.4% |
| 0-0 after 6 (1,039 / 305 games) | 24.1% | 25.6% |
| 0-0 after 7 (528 / 176 games) | 36.0% | 36.9% |
The gap is small and nearly vanishes late, so the chance of reaching extras has barely changed. What has changed is what happens once they start. Extra innings are now shorter and higher-scoring, and I keep that in mind when a total is close to the line.
If this happens…
An 0-0 after three still produced 7 or more runs in 37.9% of games. The total only shifts decisively by five, when the average falls to 3.98.
Use the fair under 6.5 odds of −452 after five and −931 after six as a benchmark. Only take an in-play under when the quoted price is better than that, adjusted for the actual pitchers.
48.0% of games 0-0 after five and 63.5% after seven ended by one run. Laying a run line in a scoreless game is fighting the base rate.
Questions bettors ask
How many runs does an MLB game score if it is 0-0 after five innings?
Across 2,629 such games from 2000 to 2025, the final total averaged 3.98 runs. 81.9% finished with 6 runs or fewer.
How often does a 0-0 game after eight innings go to extras?
Games 0-0 after eight went to extra innings 56.2% of the time. 60.6% ended 1-0, which includes some decided in extras.
Does the home team have an edge in scoreless MLB games?
A small one. Home teams won 53.9% of games 0-0 after five and 55.3% of games 0-0 after seven.
I'm Ji-hoon Kang, based in Seoul, and I write the baseball best picks at cricketscoretips.com — a sport where pitching matchups and patience matter most.
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