No Horse Under 5.00: What Price Wins a Wide-Open Race?
In open races the winner comes from further down the betting. Across 127,903 races, I show how far down, and whether the big prices are fairly priced.
When the shortest-priced horse in a race is odds-on, around 3.00, or bigger than 5.00, where in the betting does the winner come from and how often does a 21.00+ outsider win?
- A18.3%favourite won when no runner was under 5.00
- B73.9%favourite won when it was under 1.50
- C10.6%21.00+ winners in races with no runner under 5.00
- D8.10median winning SP when no runner was under 5.00
Every racegoer knows the feeling of opening a field and finding no horse under 5.00. My question is simple: when the market cannot settle on a favourite, where in the betting does the winner actually come from, and how often does a 21.00+ outsider land? I took 127,903 Australian and New Zealand flat races and grouped each one by the shortest starting price in the field.
The headline is stark. A favourite under 1.50 won 73.9% of its races, but when no runner was under 5.00 the favourite won only 18.3%, and a 21.00+ runner won 10.6%. That gap is why I treat open races differently on my horse racing tips page. The more useful finding is quieter: the big prices in those races are close to fair.
Branch AThe winner drifts down the betting as races open up
Each bar is one race shape, split by where the winner sat in the betting. In the top row the favourite dominates, and a horse 7th or bigger won just 1.6%. Read down and the favourite's share shrinks with every price band, through 39.8% at 2.00-2.99 and 29.3% at 3.00-3.99, until it reaches 18.3% in the open races.
Two things stand out. From 3.00-3.99 onwards, the 2nd and 3rd in the betting together beat the favourite, at 36.6% against 29.3%. In the open races, the horses 7th or bigger won 22.7%, which is more often than the favourite did.
Rows grouped by the shortest SP in the race. Co-favourites count as the favourite here.
View the data: who wins: by the shortest price in the race
| Favourite | 2nd-3rd in betting | 4th-6th in betting | 7th or bigger | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 1.50 | 73.9% | 17.7% | 6.8% | 1.6% |
| 1.50-1.99 | 56.3% | 27.2% | 13.2% | 3.4% |
| 2.00-2.99 | 39.8% | 35.3% | 19.1% | 5.7% |
| 3.00-3.99 | 29.3% | 36.6% | 24.6% | 9.4% |
| 4.00-4.99 | 23.6% | 33.2% | 28.8% | 14.4% |
| 5.00 or bigger | 18.3% | 29.3% | 29.8% | 22.7% |
For me this is the clearest picture of why favourites lose. They have to beat a whole field, and as that field gets more even the favourite is no longer likely to win. It is only the single likeliest horse.
Branch BOpen races are bigger fields with longer-priced winners
The table explains the shape. Races with no runner under 5.00 averaged 12.1 runners, against 7.8 when the favourite was under 1.50. The median winner went off at 8.10 instead of 1.43.
The number of 21.00+ runners hardly changes, though. There were 4.2 on average in open races and 4.7 behind a sub-1.50 favourite. What changes is how much chance each of those outsiders carries. Fair odds for a 21.00+ winner shorten from 14.29 to 9.43 as the races open up.
| Shortest price | Races | Avg runners | Avg 21.00+ runners | Median winner SP | Fair odds 21.00+ winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 1.50 | 2,249 | 7.8 | 4.7 | 1.43 | 14.29 |
| 1.50-1.99 | 12,431 | 8.6 | 4.4 | 1.95 | 12.20 |
| 2.00-2.99 | 42,976 | 9.2 | 4.0 | 4.10 | 12.66 |
| 3.00-3.99 | 40,361 | 9.9 | 3.9 | 5.32 | 12.05 |
| 4.00-4.99 | 20,889 | 10.8 | 3.9 | 6.48 | 11.24 |
| 5.00 or bigger | 8,997 | 12.1 | 4.2 | 8.10 | 9.43 |
Fair odds = 100 ÷ the share of races won by a 21.00+ runner.
Branch CIn open races, outsiders win about as often as priced
Each row compares the combined SP chance of every 21.00+ runner with how often one of them actually won. Behind a sub-1.50 favourite the outsiders were priced at 8.3% but won 7.0%. They were a little overrated, which fits with an odds-on horse that does its job.
Through the middle bands the two dots almost touch, and at 4.00-4.99 they match exactly. In the open races the outsiders won 10.6% against a priced 10.2%. That is slightly better than their prices suggested, but it sits inside the 95% range shown.
Priced = sum of 1/SP for runners at 21.00 or bigger, divided by the whole SP book. 95% ranges shown.
View the data: a 21.00+ runner wins: priced vs actual
| Priced | Won | 95% range | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 1.50 (2,249 races) | 8.3% | 7.0% | ±1.1 |
| 1.50-1.99 (12,431 races) | 8.3% | 8.2% | ±0.5 |
| 2.00-2.99 (42,976 races) | 8.2% | 7.9% | ±0.3 |
| 3.00-3.99 (40,361 races) | 8.4% | 8.3% | ±0.3 |
| 4.00-4.99 (20,889 races) | 8.9% | 8.9% | ±0.4 |
| 5.00 or bigger (8,997 races) | 10.2% | 10.6% | ±0.6 |
I read this as an efficient market rather than a hidden edge. The price you take is only final at the off, and a race that looks open in the morning can tighten late. Differences of a point or so can easily be chance.
Branch DBacking big prices only gets close in open races
This is what flat staking at SP after commission would have returned. Backing every 21.00+ runner behind a sub-1.50 favourite lost 14.7%, and it lost slightly more at 1.50-1.99. In the open races the same approach lost only 0.9%, which is about as near break-even as a blanket method gets.
The favourite line goes the other way. A sub-1.50 favourite returned −0.2%, but a favourite at 5.00 or bigger returned −3.4%. At 3.00-3.99 neither approach worked: −3.0% on the favourite and −8.1% on the outsiders.
View the data: backing the favourite or every 21.00+ runner
| Favourite | Every 21.00+ runner | |
|---|---|---|
| Under 1.50 | −0.2% | −14.7% |
| 1.50-1.99 | −2.5% | −15.9% |
| 2.00-2.99 | −3.6% | −12.6% |
| 3.00-3.99 | −3.0% | −8.1% |
| 4.00-4.99 | −0.8% | −7.9% |
| 5.00 or bigger | −3.4% | −0.9% |
Neither line is a system. What the chart tells me is where to spend my form time. In an open race, a long-priced horse with a pace or ground case is not fighting a heavily loaded price.
If this happens…
When no runner is under 5.00, the favourite wins only 18.3% and a horse 7th or bigger wins 22.7%. Do the form work on the whole field, not just the top of the market.
A sub-1.50 favourite won 73.9%, and blanket 21.00+ bets in those races lost 14.7%. Do not chase outsiders just because the price is big.
Race shape is set by the final SP, so a race that looks open early can change late. Confirm the market still has no runner under 5.00 before you treat it as wide open.
Questions bettors ask
How often does the favourite win when no horse is under 5.00?
In 8,997 Australian and New Zealand flat races with no runner under 5.00, the favourite won 18.3%. A favourite under 1.50 won 73.9%.
How often does a 21.00+ outsider win a wide-open race?
A runner at 21.00 or bigger won 10.6% of races with no horse under 5.00, which equals fair odds of 9.43. Behind a sub-1.50 favourite the figure was 7.0%.
Is backing every outsider in open races profitable?
Not quite. Backing every 21.00+ runner in races with no horse under 5.00 returned −0.9% after commission. That is close to break-even but still a loss, and it could be chance.
I'm Mei Chen, based in Beijing, and I write the horse racing tips at cricketscoretips.com — reading form, going and pace rather than chasing the name at the top of the market.
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