After a Shock Result in Rugby Union: Upset Winners and Losers Next
A shock win or a shock defeat changes the next match less than the noise suggests, but beaten favourites keep falling short of their rating when they start favourite again.
After a rugby union club side wins as a big underdog or loses as a big favourite, how does its next match go compared with what the ratings expect?
- A46.2%next-match win share after an upset win
- B52.2%next-match win share after an upset loss
- C−4.4pts: upset losers next time v the model
- D+2.7pts: upset winners next time v the model
Every season a heavily fancied club side gets turned over, and the following week the market has to decide whether that was a blip or a warning. I wanted to know what actually happens next. I took every club match where the rating model gave a side under 35% and it won, or 65% or more and it lost, then followed that side into its next fixture.
The headline is uneven. Upset winners won 46.2% of their next matches and ran +2.7 points ahead of the model, while upset losers won 52.2% but sat −4.4 points behind what the ratings expected. If you follow my free rugby union picks page, this is the kind of base rate I check before I trust a bounce-back price.
Branch AUpset losers trail the model, upset winners edge ahead
Each row sets the model's average chance against the actual next-match result, with draws counted as half. Upset winners carried a 44.5% model chance and delivered 47.2%. Upset losers carried 57.3% and managed only 52.9%.
The control rows matter as much as the upsets. Sides that lost as expected beat their 40.2% model chance with 43.2%, and sides that won as expected fell short of 58.5% with 55.7%. The ratings lean slightly too hard on favourites across the board, so part of the upset story is just that general lean.
View the data: after an upset: model v next result
| Model chance | Next match won | 95% range | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Upset win (429 team-matches) | 44.5% | 47.2% | ±4.7 |
| Expected loss (1,417 team-matches) | 40.2% | 43.2% | ±2.6 |
| Upset loss (433 team-matches) | 57.3% | 52.9% | ±4.7 |
| Expected win (1,525 team-matches) | 58.5% | 55.7% | ±2.5 |
The upset rows carry an error band of 4.7 points against 2.6 and 2.5 for the larger groups, so I read the +2.7 for upset winners as a hint, not a finding. The −4.4 for beaten favourites is the sharper signal, and it is a bigger miss than the control favourites show.
Branch BBeaten favourites rarely get thumped the following week
Here the next result is split into wins, draws, narrow defeats and heavy defeats. Upset winners lost by 8 or more 32.6% of the time, against 28.4% for upset losers. Sides that lost as expected took the heaviest beatings, at 38.7%.
For handicap bettors this is the useful branch. A side that has just pulled off a shock still loses big about a third of the time, so the giant-killing does not turn a weaker pack into a strong one overnight.
View the data: how the next match ends
| Won | Drew | Lost by 1-7 | Lost by 8+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Upset win | 46.2% | 2.1% | 19.1% | 32.6% |
| Expected loss | 42.3% | 1.7% | 17.2% | 38.7% |
| Upset loss | 52.2% | 1.4% | 18.0% | 28.4% |
| Expected win | 55.0% | 1.6% | 18.5% | 25.0% |
Branch CVenue swings the next result far more than the shock
This heatmap splits next-match win share by where the side plays. Upset losers back at home won 71.8%, close to the 74.3% for favourites who had won as expected. Away from home, upset winners won just 30.0% and upset losers 36.1%.
The gap between home and away within each row dwarfs the gap between rows. The model applies one home edge to every league and tends to underrate hosts, so I compare these cells with each other rather than with the ratings. The smallest cell still holds 195 team-matches.
Smallest cell 195 team-matches.
View the data: next-match win share by venue
| Next at home | Next away | |
|---|---|---|
| Upset win | 62.0% | 30.0% |
| Expected loss | 53.7% | 23.3% |
| Upset loss | 71.8% | 36.1% |
| Expected win | 74.3% | 42.3% |
My read is simple: a home pitch, a home crowd and a familiar set-piece routine do more to settle a pack after a shock than any talk of momentum. I weight the fixture list before I weight the last scoreline.
Branch DUpset losers priced as favourites again underdeliver most
Splitting each group by its next role is where the clearest edge appears. Upset losers who started favourite again won 64.9% of 262 matches against a model chance of 72.2%, a gap of −6.4 points and a fair price of 1.54.
Upset winners going in as underdogs again won 32.2% of 264 against 30.0% expected, a fair price of 3.11 and a gap of +3.3. These are model comparisons drawn from final scores only, with no market prices or half-time scores in the records, so they describe base rates rather than proven profit against a bookmaker.
| State | Cases | Model chance | Won | Fair odds | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Upset winner, next as favourite | 165 | 67.7% | 68.5% | 1.46 | +1.7 |
| Upset winner, next as underdog | 264 | 30.0% | 32.2% | 3.11 | +3.3 |
| Upset loser, next as favourite | 262 | 72.2% | 64.9% | 1.54 | −6.4 |
| Upset loser, next as underdog | 171 | 34.4% | 32.7% | 3.06 | −1.4 |
Gap = win rate with draws half minus model chance, in points.
When a pack has just been bullied at the breakdown, I am wary of assuming the fix arrives in a week. The table suggests the ratings, and probably the punters, forgive a beaten favourite too quickly.
If this happens…
Upset losers sent out as favourites again won 64.9% against a 72.2% model chance. If their price implies something near the model, I look at the handicap on the other side.
Upset winners won 62.0% at home but 30.0% away next time. Check where the next match is played before reading anything into the shock.
Upset winners still lost by 8 or more 32.6% of the time next match. One big win rarely justifies a short line the following week.
Questions bettors ask
Do rugby union teams bounce back after a shock defeat?
Partly. Upset losers won 52.2% of their next club matches, a fair price of 1.92, but that sat −4.4 points below the rating model's expectation.
Do upset winners in rugby union win again the next week?
Less than half the time: they won 46.2% of 429 next matches, a fair price of 2.16. That was still +2.7 points above the model's average 44.5% chance.
Does home advantage matter after an upset in rugby?
A great deal. Upset losers won 71.8% at home the next week but only 36.1% away, a much bigger swing than the upset itself produces.
I'm Hannah Whitfield, based in Vancouver, and I write the rugby union betting tips at cricketscoretips.com — where the set piece and the bench decide what the scoreboard only hints at.
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