NHL Games Tied 2-2 After Two Periods: Overtime or Regulation?
I tracked 1,401 NHL games that were 2-2 after two periods to see how often regulation settles them and what the final total does.
When an NHL game is level after two periods, especially at 2-2, how often is it settled in regulation, overtime or a shootout, and what happens to the total?
- A40.0%2-2 games still level after 60 minutes
- B2.50fair decimal price, 60-minute tie from 2-2
- C64.1%2-2 after two that went over 5.5
- D1,401games 2-2 after two periods
A tie after 40 minutes is one of the most common states in NHL betting. Of 17,921 regular-season games in this sample, 22.5% were level after two periods and 7.8% were exactly 2-2. My question is simple: from that state, does the game finish in regulation, overtime or a shootout, and where does the total land? This is a study, not a selection; for match-specific views, head to tonight's hockey picks.
The headline answer: from 2-2 after two, the game was still level at 60 minutes 40.0% of the time, a fair price of 2.50 (+150). The total is the bigger story. Because a 5-goal finish needs only one more goal or a shootout, 64.1% of these games went over 5.5. Below I take it chart by chart.
Branch ARegulation settles about three in five tied games
This chart splits every game tied after two by how it was finally settled. From 2-2, the home side won in regulation 31.0% of the time and the road side 28.9%. Overtime decided 22.8% and the shootout 17.2%. The 1-1 row looks almost identical: 32.7% home, 28.2% road, 21.9% overtime and 17.2% shootout.
What strikes me is how little the scoreline changes the shape. Whether it is 0-0 or 3-3, the bands barely move. The shootout share drifts only slightly, from 17.7% at 0-0 to 15.8% at 3-3 or higher, which fits the idea that low-event games are a little more likely to run the full distance.
View the data: tied after 40 minutes: how the game is settled
| Home wins in regulation | Road wins in regulation | Decided in overtime | Decided in shootout | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-0 (430) | 29.3% | 27.0% | 26.0% | 17.7% |
| 1-1 (1,611) | 32.7% | 28.2% | 21.9% | 17.2% |
| 2-2 (1,401) | 31.0% | 28.9% | 22.8% | 17.2% |
| 3-3 or higher (596) | 32.2% | 30.4% | 21.6% | 15.8% |
Once overtime and shootouts are included, the home team won 50.2% of games that were 2-2 after two. The home edge in regulation is real but thin, and extra time largely evens it out. I would not pay much for the home side on the strength of a tie alone.
Branch BA 2-2 game reaches overtime about four times in ten
The table turns the overtime branches into a fair price for a 60-minute tie. From 2-2 it is 40.0%, or 2.50 (+150), with 'not tied' at 60.0% and a fair 1.67. The 0-0 games go to overtime most often at 43.7% (2.29, +129), while 3-3 or higher is the least likely at 37.4% (2.67, +167).
Across all games, the 60-minute tie rate is 22.9%. A 2-2 game after two is far more likely to need overtime than a typical game at puck drop, but be clear: the pre-game line can no longer be bet once the game is known to be 2-2 after two. The relevant comparison is with the live price offered in the second intermission.
| Score after 2 | Games | Tied at 60 | Fair | American | Not tied | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | 430 | 43.7% | 2.29 | +129 | 56.3% | 1.78 |
| 1-1 | 1,611 | 39.1% | 2.56 | +156 | 60.9% | 1.64 |
| 2-2 | 1,401 | 40.0% | 2.50 | +150 | 60.0% | 1.67 |
| 3-3 or higher | 596 | 37.4% | 2.67 | +167 | 62.6% | 1.60 |
If a live market offers well above 2.50 for the regulation draw at 2-2, that is the gap I would look into. Below 2.50, the book is ahead of the data.
Branch CTwo-goal third periods are the most common outcome
This heatmap shows how many goals the third period produced from each tied state. From 2-2, the third was scoreless 19.0% of the time, had one goal 16.9%, two goals 33.3% and three or more 30.8%. The scoreless rate barely moves across the rows: 21.2% from 0-0 and 20.0% from 3-3 or higher.
The note under the chart matters. A single goal or three goals always produce a regulation winner, while zero or two can leave the game level. That is why the overtime rate sits well above the scoreless-third rate: a fair number of two-goal thirds finish one apiece.
0 or 2 third-period goals can still leave the game level; 1 or 3 always produce a regulation winner.
View the data: third-period goals when tied after two
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | 21.2% | 20.0% | 32.8% | 26.0% |
| 1-1 | 19.7% | 17.0% | 31.8% | 31.5% |
| 2-2 | 19.0% | 16.9% | 33.3% | 30.8% |
| 3-3 or higher | 20.0% | 17.6% | 28.4% | 34.1% |
I find the scoreless figure the most useful. A goalless third looks like the 'dead game' scenario many bettors expect from a tight tie, yet it happens in fewer than one game in five even from 0-0.
Branch DFrom 2-2, the final total clusters at seven
Totals here are graded as a bettor would see them, with an overtime goal counted and a shootout win credited as one goal. From 2-2, 19.0% finished on 5 goals after going beyond 60 minutes, and 16.9% finished on 5 with a third-period winner. Those two bars match the scoreless and one-goal thirds exactly, which is a neat check on the data.
The tallest bar is 7 goals at 35.4%, driven by 3-3 regulation finishes that need a winner and by three-goal thirds. Six goals came in at 15.4% and 8 or more at 13.3%. Over 5.5 landed 64.1% of the time and over 6.5 landed 48.7%.
View the data: from 2-2 after two: the final total
| 1,401 games, total incl. OT goal / shootout credit | |
|---|---|
| 5 goals, settled after 60 | 19.0% |
| 5 goals, settled in the 3rd | 16.9% |
| 6 goals | 15.4% |
| 7 goals | 35.4% |
| 8 or more | 13.3% |
One caveat covers everything above: overtime switched from 4-on-4 to 3-on-3 for five minutes from 2015-16, which shifts the overtime and shootout split. The sample also lacks 2014-15 and includes two shortened seasons, so I treat the extra-time branches as a range rather than a fixed value.
If this happensโฆ
From 2-2 after two, a 60-minute tie came up 40.0% of the time, a fair 2.50. Only consider the live draw when the price clearly beats that.
A 2-2 game needs just one goal or a shootout to clear 5.5, which happened 64.1% of the time. Live unders on 5.5 need a very cheap entry to make sense.
Over 6.5 landed 48.7% from 2-2, close to a coin flip. Seven goals was the single most common finish at 35.4%, so the line sits right on the cluster.
Questions bettors ask
How often does an NHL game tied 2-2 after two periods go to overtime?
In 1,401 regular-season games that were 2-2 after two, the game was still level at 60 minutes 40.0% of the time. That works out to a fair price of 2.50, or +150 in American odds.
Does the home team win more often from a tie after two periods?
Slightly. From 2-2, the home side won in regulation 31.0% of the time against 28.9% for the road side, and 50.2% overall once overtime and shootouts are included.
What is the most common final total when an NHL game is 2-2 after two?
Seven goals, which happened 35.4% of the time. Over 5.5 landed 64.1% of the time because a shootout win counts as a goal for totals.
I'm Dmitri Volkov, based in Moscow, and I cover ice hockey predictions at cricketscoretips.com โ focused on goaltending, special teams and the metrics that move results.
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